Lula wins Brazil runoff, beats Flávio Bolsonaro

Update, 26 Oct 2026: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won Brazil's presidential runoff, beating senator Flávio Bolsonaro with about 51.8% of the valid votes to about 48.2%, a margin of nearly 4.4 million votes with all ballots counted, according to Brazil's electoral court (TSE) as reported by the Associated Press, Al Jazeera and France 24. Bolsonaro has not conceded and says he will seek to have the election annulled.

Brazil voted on Sunday, 25 October, in a presidential runoff between Lula, 80, and right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 42, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Final polls had shown the race within the margin of error, and many analysts called it a toss-up, Al Jazeera and CNN reported. Lula came from behind after finishing second in the first round.

The vote pitted Lula's left-wing record against the movement built by Bolsonaro's father, who is barred from running and is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence linked to efforts to overturn his 2022 defeat.

Key points

• Lula won the 25 October 2026 runoff with 51.79% of the valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, France 24 reported, citing the TSE count.
• Lula won more than 64 million votes and Bolsonaro more than 59 million, Al Jazeera reported. The margin was nearly 4.4 million votes, the AP reported.
• Lula becomes the first Brazilian president elected four times, and the first candidate since 1989 to win after finishing second in the first round, Al Jazeera reported.
• Flávio Bolsonaro has not conceded and says he will seek to annul the result.
• Lula's new term begins on 5 January 2027, the AP and Al Jazeera reported.

The result

The race was called shortly after 9 pm Brasília time on Sunday, about 5:30 am on Monday in India, Al Jazeera reported.

Vote counts are the TSE figures with 100% of polling stations counted, as published by The Rio Times; shares are as reported by France 24. Abstention fell to about 30.4 million voters from 33.4 million in the first round, France 24 reported.

Lula's first remarks: In a victory speech in São Paulo, Lula thanked the Brazilian people and the young people who, he said, took to the streets to defend democracy, France 24 reported. He called the result "a defeat for denialism and lies" and said Brazil "will not accept being anyone's backyard", the AP reported. He also acknowledged that Congress leans to the right, saying he does not choose the Congress, Al Jazeera reported.

Bolsonaro's reaction: Speaking briefly in Brasília, Flávio Bolsonaro said it was impossible to acknowledge the result and that his team would ask for the election to be annulled, Al Jazeera and France 24 reported. He accused the Supreme Court of changing the rules mid-game, after Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered polling stations to stay open two hours longer, until 7 pm Brasília time. Both campaigns had asked for that extension, Al Jazeera reported.

The first round

Neither candidate won a majority in the first round on 4 October, so the top two went to a runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro won about 56,104,503 votes and Lula about 53,879,538, Al Jazeera reported, a lead of roughly 2.2 million votes, or about 47% to 45%.

About one in five eligible voters did not vote in the first round, which meant turnout in the runoff could decide the result as much as any change of mind.

The final pre-election polls

All three final pre-election polls were within a margin of error of about two points, Al Jazeera reported, and all three had Bolsonaro narrowly ahead. Datafolha had Bolsonaro at 49% a week earlier, suggesting the race tightened in the final days. Datafolha also found that 94% of voters had already made up their minds.

The divide among religious groups was stark: Datafolha found Bolsonaro leading among evangelical Christians by 62% to 29%, while Lula led among Catholics by 52% to 42%.

The candidates

Lula (Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva), 80, Workers' Party

• A former metalworker and union leader, Lula was president from 2003 to 2010 and returned to power after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.
• He has now won a fourth term, extending a political career spanning nearly five decades.
• In the final days, he held rallies to energise supporters and pointed to Congress's recent approval of a law giving workers two paid days off a week instead of one, a promise from his social reform agenda, Al Jazeera reported.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 42, right-wing senator

• A senator from Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro.
• He promised a crackdown on crime and drug trafficking and changes to taxes linked to government programmes.
• He is closely aligned with US President Donald Trump, Al Jazeera reported.

Lula's record

Lula's first two terms, from 2003 to 2010, are remembered for expanding social programmes such as Bolsa Família, a cash transfer scheme for poor families, and for a commodities boom that lifted millions of Brazilians out of poverty. He left office with very high approval ratings. He was later convicted of corruption and jailed in 2018, but his convictions were annulled by Brazil's Supreme Court in 2021, which allowed him to run again and defeat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.

His current term has focused on restoring social programmes, protecting the Amazon rainforest and raising Brazil's profile abroad, including hosting the G20 in 2024. His critics say his government has spent too much and done too little on crime. At 80, age was also an issue in the campaign.

The Bolsonaro factor

Jair Bolsonaro, president from 2019 to 2022, was barred by Brazil's electoral court from running for office until 2030, after it ruled that he abused his authority by casting doubt on the 2022 election. He was later convicted over efforts to overturn the 2022 result, which he lost to Lula, and is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence, Al Jazeera reported.

His son's candidacy was therefore seen as a test of whether the Bolsonaro movement could return to power without him on the ballot. Sunday's result shows it came close but fell short.

The issues

• Crime and security: Violent crime and drug trafficking are top concerns for many voters, and Flávio Bolsonaro built his campaign around them.
• Cost of living: Prices and wages remain central, especially for poorer Brazilians who make up much of Lula's base.
• Relations with the US: Brazil's relationship with the Trump administration has been tense, and the two candidates offered very different approaches.
• A rightward region: Several Latin American countries have shifted to the right in recent elections. Lula's win keeps Brazil on the left as much of the region moves the other way, CNN reported.

What the result means

• A fourth Lula term: Lula is expected to continue his social and environmental policies and keep Brazil closely engaged in BRICS and Global South diplomacy, while relations with the Trump administration are likely to remain cool.
• A divided country: The narrow margin, and Bolsonaro's refusal to concede, point to a polarised country, as in 2022, when the close result was followed by unrest in Brasília.
• A difficult Congress: Lula will have to work with a legislature that leans to the right, which he acknowledged in his victory speech, Al Jazeera reported.

How Brazil votes

Brazil uses electronic voting machines nationwide, and voting is compulsory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70. Polls open in the morning and close in the late afternoon local time, and results usually come within hours of polls closing, because votes are counted electronically. Brazil's time zone is eight and a half hours behind India, so the result came in the early hours of Monday, 26 October, Indian time. This year polls stayed open two hours longer than planned after the Supreme Court ruling.

Why it matters for India

• BRICS: Brazil and India are founding members of BRICS, the grouping that also includes Russia, China and South Africa. Brazil's president shapes the group's direction, and Lula has been a strong supporter of a bigger voice for the Global South.
• Trade: Brazil is a major supplier of soybean oil, crude oil and other commodities to India, and a market for Indian medicines, vehicles and chemicals. Both countries have worked to grow trade.
• G20 and the Global South: Lula hosted the G20 in 2024 after India in 2023, and the two countries have cooperated closely on issues such as climate finance and reform of global institutions.
• Continuity: A Flávio Bolsonaro government aligned with Trump could have shifted Brazil's foreign policy. Lula's win means continuity in Brazil's approach to BRICS and to China, its largest trading partner.

For Indian businesses, the result points to continuity in commodity trade, in how Brazil approaches BRICS, which India chairs in 2026, and in ties between the two large emerging economies.

Brazil's choice was between a familiar veteran and a familiar surname. By the time India woke up on Monday, one of the world's largest democracies had chosen the veteran, by a narrow margin.